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  Title	📓 The Pick-and-Shovel, Double-Digit Growth Space Play You Haven’t Heard Of
  Children	Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369 Comment by campbellscoops Comment by keepitcoming369
  ID	29130085
  External ID	1phlhen
  Author	AlfrescoDog
  Published Date	Dec. 8, 2025, 1:19 p.m.
  Summary	# TL;DR Here’s the whole thesis: If you believe space launches will increase; if you expect NASA, commercial satellite operators, national-security agencies, and private launch companies will keep ex
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  URL	https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1phlhen/the_pickandshovel_doubledigit_growth_space_play/
  Sentiment	Negative: 0.01686    Neutral: 0.59216    Positive: 0.39098
  Relevance	0.00000

• Content Details

  Content ID	36727616
  Key	7fd9c35b-5aed-490c-b6ad-11c14323bebc
  Content	# TL;DR Here’s the whole thesis: If you believe space launches will increase; if you expect NASA, commercial satellite operators, national-security agencies, and private launch companies will keep expanding activity into orbit, then Karman is a little-known company you *need* to know. ================================= # The Short & Sweet Karman Holdings (**$KRMN**) is a little-known **aerospace and defense** company posting numbers that look nothing like the obscurity of its stock. Revenue up 23% YoY, net income up 191%, and a funded backlog up 35%, with guidance calling for another year *(and beyond)* of **double-digit expansion**. For a company most of you haven’t even heard of, these are eye-popping metrics. The driver is straightforward: Karman builds high-spec structures, subsystems, and assemblies for **missiles, hypersonics, and next-gen launch vehicles**. Its acquisition of Metal Technology Inc. brought capabilities in ultra–high-temperature alloys, for materials used in **strategic missile programs** where steel melts and only special refractory metals survive. That move pushed Karman deeper into **classified supply chains** tied to U.S. rearmament, allied purchases, and the global shift toward tactical missile systems. Karman also sits inside both of the next-decade launch platforms: **Blue Origin’s New Glenn and ULA’s Vulcan**. Each is designed for national security, deep-space, and commercial missions. And since Karman supplies structural components to *both* vehicles, you don’t need to predict which rocket will win future contracts because the activity itself is the catalyst. **Karman wins either way**. Karman’s core markets (missile defense, hypersonics, and launch systems) are expanding, not contracting. That makes its recent pullback attractive. **Takeaway:** Karman is a rare case of a true hidden gem. The company sits inside every major missile and launch trend, and that trend will just accelerate. ================================= # The Long & Winding Karman Holdings (**$KRMN**) is an under-the-radar supplier embedded across some of the most important U.S. **space and missile-defense programs**. But before we talk about what this company actually *does*, we start with the trail of evidence buried in its filings. After all, **numbers don’t care about narratives**. They don’t hype. They simply record the truth, especially the kind most people don't pay attention to. Karman’s disclosures reveal something quietly unusual. A company whose trajectory doesn’t match its obscurity. **Growth hiding behind small-cap camouflage**. # The Numbers Speak Before the Narrative While the company may be small, the numbers don’t lie. They signal momentum. And momentum in an obscure defense contractor is rarely accidental. # FY2024: A Record Across the Board On April 8, 2025, KRMN reported: * **Revenue**: $345.3M, **+23% YoY** * **Net income**: $12.7M, **+191.3% YoY** * **Adjusted EBITDA**: $106.1M, **+29.7% YoY** * **Funded backlog**: $579.8M, **+35.2% YoY** For a small-cap contractor, these are not ordinary numbers. This is a company stepping into a larger orbit. # 2025 Outlook: Expansion, Not Consolidation For FY2025, Karman expects: * **Revenue**: $423–$433M * **Adjusted EBITDA**: $132–$137M **Double-digit growth on top of double-digit growth**. # Q1 2025: The Trend Continued On May 13, 2025: * **EPS**: $0.05 (vs. $0.02 est.) * **Revenue**: $100.12M, **+20.6% YoY** Guidance reaffirmed. No slowdown. At this point, some of you might realize that even though you’ve never heard of this company, these numbers look interesting. And they are. Because once you peel back the veil, the reason becomes obvious. # The CEO Speaks After delivering the [Business Outlook for the Full Year 2025](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250408551721/en/Karman-Space-Defense-Reports-Full-Fiscal-Year-2024-Financial-Results), Tony Koblinski, Karman’s Chief Executive Officer, summarized it this way: >“Across numerous key metrics, we achieved record performance in 2024 that positions us very well for growth in 2025 and beyond. >Each of our end markets delivered **double-digit topline growth** and remains **very well aligned with existing and emerging customer and national priorities** in missiles, tactical defense systems, and space and launch systems.” [Karman Space & Defense Full-Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250408551721/en/Karman-Space-Defense-Reports-Full-Fiscal-Year-2024-Financial-Results). Karman is one of the quiet cogs inside **America’s missile defense buildup, hypersonic development race, and next-generation launch ecosystem**. But to understand how deep that goes, we begin with a move that opened new doors. # The Metallurgical Key Earlier this year, Karman acquired Metal Technology Inc. (MTI), a company specializing in **ultra-high-temperature refractory alloys** used in strategic missile systems. MTI works with materials such as Tantalum, Zirconium, Niobium, Vanadium, and Molybdenum. These aren’t ordinary metals. They are **engineered for environments where temperatures reach levels that melt steel and vaporize conventional alloys**. With this acquisition, Karman gained new metallurgical capabilities, access to high-specification missile programs, **deeper integration into classified supply chains**, increased revenue and EBITDA, and expanded design and manufacturing scope. KRMN reaffirmed that it is not just a supplier, but a *strategic* supplier. # Missile and Integrated Defense Systems The revenue in this segment grew due to key programs entering or continuing production cycles. Why? Because U.S. military inventory is being replenished, global conflicts have continued to drive demand, allies are purchasing next-generation tactical systems, and missile defense is entering a new strategic era. Karman provides the structures, subsystems, and assemblies that make these systems operational. Now, it’s not about whether there’s a war or not. Of course, I don’t want *any* wars. But even in peacetime, **missile defense isn’t slowing down**. It’s accelerating. And now Karman sits closer to the core. # Hypersonics and Strategic Missile Defense It has been called the highest-temperature, highest-priority arms race on Earth. **Hypersonics is the battlefield of the next decade**. Every major power is investing, testing, and racing toward Mach-5+ platforms. But **few companies can build components that survive these temperatures and stresses**. Karman is one of them. This segment’s revenue surged thanks to well-funded programs in both development and production, **backed by aggressive government budgets**. Karman’s offerings (propulsion, deployable shrouds, launchers, energetic subsystems) are precisely the components required for hypersonic missile systems. This is not speculative work. This is strategic infrastructure. # Space and Launch Systems This is **where commercial demand and defense priorities finally converge**. Revenue here increased due to Karman’s involvement in two next-generation launch vehicles. # Blue Origin’s New Glenn A heavy-lift reusable orbital rocket whose purpose is to launch satellites, space infrastructure, and future deep-space missions. It is still in a development stage. Although, on November 13, 2025, the New Glenn first stage landed successfully for the first time. The rocket is scheduled to launch the Blue Moon Mark 1 lunar lander on robotic missions in early 2026 and late 2027. Blue Origin’s customer base: * Commercial satellite operators. * Government payloads. * Potential national-security missions. [New Glenn](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-glenn) is designed to compete with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy. Its reusable first stage, massive payload capacity, and **long-term contract potential with DoD and NASA** make it a cornerstone of the growing commercial and government launch ecosystem. Karman supplies components used in New Glenn’s structures and launch systems. # ULA’s Vulcan A next-generation launch vehicle by United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT). [Vulcan](https://www.ulalaunch.com/rockets/vulcan-centaur) is the United Launch Alliance successor to Atlas V and Delta IV, the legacy rockets that became the backbone of U.S. national-security launches. It has already flown its first successful mission. This rocket is built to serve: * U.S. Space Force. * DoD national-security missions. * Commercial payloads. * NASA deep-space missions. Vulcan is engineered specifically for **National Security Space Launch (NSSL)** contracts: The elite, highest-priority, and highest-specification launches in America’s defense architecture and orbital missions. It is expected to be one of the main U.S. rockets for defense-related payloads over the next decade. And Karman is inside that build because Karman supplies structural components and subsystems that go directly into Vulcan’s architecture. # Whichever Rocket Wins, Karman Wins This isn’t about picking sides in the rocket race. It isn’t about tracking which launch vehicle secures more payloads, or which timeline slips, or which program accelerates. Karman supplies critical hardware to *both* ULA’s Vulcan and Blue Origin’s New Glenn. Karman’s components run through the veins of *both* launch systems. Whichever rocket wins the next wave of contracts, Karman wins with it. If national-security payloads shift in one direction or commercial contracts in another, the outcome is the same: **Karman benefits either way**. # Understanding the Core of the Play This is a crucial hinge of the entire play. **If you understand this one idea**, the rest of the thesis can open itself to you. **You don’t need to decide whether New Glenn or Vulcan will dominate the next decade**. You don’t have to choose heads or tails. Because with Karman, **it isn’t about the side of the coin**. **It’s just about the coin being flipped into the air**. **As long as rockets are being launched** (commercial, government, national-security, deep-space, doesn’t matter) **Karman benefits**. The rivalry is irrelevant. **The activity itself is the catalyst**. # The Short-Term Decline Now, yes, Karman, like many other growth names, was bruised over the past few weeks. The stock is down –24.80% since the close on November 3, 2025. Personally, I bought (and keep buying) the dip *gradually*. There was support in the high $50s (Karman has bounced from there, though), and the stock did ride a +23.37% rally in four days (Nov 21-26), so keep that in mind since this is a company below 10 billion in market cap. Check the chart. Once it runs, it runs north fast. You should also know the KRMN play, although great for swings, is mostly meant for the **long term**. This is a **structural story**, not a short-lived trade. I did buy a handful of **KRMN Dec 19 2025 80 Calls** for cheap, though. Of course, this one is a cheap, low-risk, high-reward play if it works. Quite simply, the stock can move $10 in a couple of days, and if KRMN even gets in the ballpark to sniff that strike, these become multi-baggers. But, again, the main play is for the long-term. # Why Smart Money Is Interested On May 23, portfolio manager [Randy Gwirtzman](https://www.baroncapitalgroup.com/bio/randolph-gwirtzman) of Baron Capital published a Barron’s article highlighting small-cap defense and cybersecurity stocks he believes have strong potential. He noted that many investors are shifting away from economically sensitive sectors and toward **companies capable of compounding regardless of macro conditions**. His focus, however, is on profitability, a key filter, especially when bond yields spike. Karman Holdings popped up on his list. And he understands there is a powerful reason this company could **benefit enormously** in the coming years: **Trump’s Golden Dome plans**. Now, everything in this post has been the backdrop, the scaffolding, the necessary foundation. In my next post, if this DD gets approved/noticed, I’ll guide you deeper into the Golden Dome itself, what it is, why it matters, and why a small, overlooked company like Karman is positioned to benefit directly, along with several more developments from KRMN. Have a nice day.
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