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  Title	Mozambique's Gold Opportunity: Lessons from Ghana and the Case for Urgent Sector Reform
  ID	29169277
  External ID	75e23e0f1c2938ca4203319cb288e7f9
  Author	Emerson Ubisse
  Published Date	Dec. 9, 2025, 10:09 p.m.
  Summary	Mozambique is standing before a strategic economic opportunity that, if properly seized, could transform the structure of its economy. At the same time, Gh
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  URL	https://furtherafrica.com/2025/12/10/mozambique-gold-sector-reform-ghana-lessons
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  Content ID	36761754
  Key	848fe73a-38a8-4e5e-ba49-55c3e2f33a99
  Content	Mozambique is standing before a strategic economic opportunity that, if properly seized, could transform the structure of its economy. At the same time, Ghana now Africa's largest gold producer is demonstrating how a coherent, formalised, and well-regulated gold industry can become a cornerstone of fiscal stability, foreign-exchange generation, and national development. With gold prices reaching historical highs globally, surpassing USD 4,000/oz in 2025, there has never been a more urgent moment for Mozambique to rethink its approach to the extractive sector and turn a currently problematic industry into a strategic asset of national importance. The Missed Opportunity: Mozambique's Underperforming Gold Sector Despite the country's natural endowment, Mozambique has not been able to convert its gold reserves into tangible development gains. Official data suggests national production was approximately 1.6 tonnes in 2024, a figure that is inconsistent with the scale of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) observed in the provinces of Manica and Tete. Based on ASM population estimates, productivity benchmarks, and regional comparators (Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Ghana), Mozambique´s true gold output is likely to be, at least, between 7 and 12 tonnes annually. This discrepancy indicates significant leakage, under-reporting, and smuggling. The broader extractive sector already represents 6% of GDP, 40% of total exports, and 8% of government revenue, yet gold itself contributes only marginally to these numbers, signalling severe underperformance relative to potential. In practice, the state is extracting far less value from gold than coal, heavy sands, or gas, despite the exceptionally high price environment. The provinces of Manica and Tete are rich in gold, yet the sector remains dominated by informality, smuggling networks, environmental degradation, and a weak regulatory presence. Recent halts of operations in Manica, including those involving foreign-owned and artisanal operations, reflect the structural dysfunctions that continue to undermine both fiscal revenues and sustainable development. Environmental issues are becoming central, river contamination by mercury, deforestation, and unsafe working conditions create long-term costs that exceed the short-term value extracted. The status quo is costly, inefficient, and economically irrational. But it does not have to be this way. Ghana's Gold Sector: A Blueprint for Success Ghana's trajectory offers a compelling model. Today, gold accounts for a significant share of its export earnings, and through reforms, institutional strengthening, and sector formalisation, Ghana has become a global reference in African gold management. Ghana´s performance in 2024-2025: Total gold production (2024): ≈150 tonnes. ASM contribution: ≈ 59 tonnes (39% of total production). ASM exports (Feb-May 2025): 41.5 tonnes valued at USD 4 billion. ASM exports (Jan- Aug 2025): 66.7 tonnes valued at USD 6.3 billion. Some of the mechanisms behind Ghana's success include: The establishment of the Ghana Gold Board (GGB), established in 2025, which centralises flow, ensures traceability, combats smuggling, and integrates artisanal miners into the formal economy, and acts as the sole authorised buyer and exporter of ASM gold. This model drastically reduced leakage, stabilised export flows, and increased the state´s visibility over both production and revenue. A structured licensing system that gives artisanal miners access to legal production frameworks and technical support. Investment in refining capacity, allowing Ghana to export higher-value gold forms instead of relying solely on raw exportation. Strong fiscal monitoring and revenue capture, ensuring that the state benefits proportionally from the sector. Stable macroeconomic policies, which reduce investor uncertainty and improve the investment climate. These factors, combined with institutional discipline, have contributed to Ghana's strong economic performance, including one of the best-performing African currencies in 2025. The connection is clear, when a strategic commodity sector is governed well, especially one of such fiscal relevance, macroeconomic stability follows. Ghana shows that when a mineral sector is governed coherently and strategically, it becomes a macroeconomic anchor, not a source of volatility. Why Mozambique Needs to Act Now: Gold Prices Are at Historical Highs A critical point rarely discussed in Mozambique's policy landscape is the ongoing global surge in gold prices (XAU/USD). Amid global trade uncertainty, inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and weakening confidence in the USD, gold has reinforced its status as the world's leading safe-haven asset. The upward trend in XAU/USD, reaching historical (USD 4,000/oz0020 in 2025), presents Mozambique with a unique window The world is willing to pay more for gold than ever before. Countries with structured gold sectors are capturing windfall gains and using it to underpin their central banks position on the world stage. Gold has become a strategic tool for central banks attempting to hedge against currency depreciation and external debt pressures. Mozambique, by contrast, is losing revenue through informality and leakage – allowing individuals to benefit while the country sits on the sidelines. In simple terms, every gram Mozambique fails to formalise today is being lost at the most profitable moment in gold's modern history. If the country implements reforms now, it can leverage the high price cycle to stabilise foreign reserves, strengthen the metical, and generate much-needed fiscal space, create fiscal buffers, and reduce reliance on volatile coal and LNG cycles. We are seeing this across the continent, as Central Banks and Ministries start to better organise around their national resources. What Mozambique Can Learn and Adapt from Ghana Not everything Ghana has done can be replicated in Mozambique, differences in institutional maturity, governance capacity, and the historical structure of the mining sector matter. However, several aspects can be adapted: 1. Formalisation Mechanism for Artisanal Mining Mozambique can adopt a Ghana-style Gold Board that registers ASM operators, supervises trading, and ensures environmental compliance through a central gatekeeper. 2. Environmental Regulation Ghana's increasing reduction of mercury use through targeted programs can be mirrored in Mozambique, especially in Manica. More controlled processing plants using better technologies will not only stop the environmental damage, but also increase Artisanal mining volumes, propelling Mozambique into the 21stcentury. 3. Value Chain Integration Investing in domestic refining would allow Mozambique to export gold at higher purity levels, eradicate smuggling and capture greater value. 4. Transparent Trading Mechanisms Mozambique can establish regulated gold buying centres, fixed-point transactions, and digital tracking systems, all proven tools in Ghana. Given Mozambique´s relatively low official production (1.6 tonnes) despite high ASM presence, centralised buying could multiply reported production several-fold. 5. Community Inclusion and Skill Transfer Formalising the sector would introduce technical training, safer methods, and structured cooperatives that reduce social tensions and informal exploitation. Working with the correct international agencies will help formalise and regulated flows, bringing Mozambique into a better position to maximise value. The Economic Payoff: What Mozambique Stands to Gain If Mozambique reforms and formalises the sector, the benefits would be significant: Increased fiscal revenue through transparent royalties and taxation. Reduced smuggling, capturing value currently lost to illicit routes. Increased foreign exchange inflows, supporting currency stability. Formal job creation, raising productivity in rural zones. Environmental recovery, reducing long-term ecological damage. Improved investor confidence, stimulating responsible private-sector participation. And with gold at peak prices, the multiplier effect of each positive reform is higher now than it would have been in any previous decade. The Strategic Imperative: Mozambique Cannot Afford Inaction Mozambique's gold sector is at a crossroads. Keeping it informal means perpetuating: revenue losses environmental destruction smuggling community conflict lost development opportunities On the other hand, a Ghana-inspired formalisation model can turn gold into a stabilising force for the Mozambican economy, at precisely the moment when global demand and prices amplify the potential benefits. Ghana increased official gold reserves by more than 21.3% in one year, strengthened its currency, and added over USD 6 billion from ASM gold exports in just eight months. Mozambique currently captures only a fraction of this potential. With political will, institutional clarity, and the right regulatory architecture, Mozambique can reposition gold as a pillar of fiscal stability and economic transformation. Conclusion Ghana's gold story is not perfect, but it is instructive and efforts are progressive. It shows that with discipline, institutional reform, and strategic clarity, a country can transform a mineral resource into a cornerstone of national development. Mozambique has the geological endowment to do the same, and the global gold market is giving the country a unique timing advantage. The task ahead is not merely technical; it is strategic. By acting now with the right policies and regulation, Mozambique can transform gold from an informal, environmentally harmful, and poorly regulated activity into a national economic lever, one capable of contributing to fiscal stability, currency resilience, and long-term development.
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